全球气候变化与地质灾害响应分析     

高杨  李滨  冯振  左晓 《地质力学学报》2017,23(1):65-77

对全球气候变化对地质灾害的响应关系,尤其是对滑坡和泥石流灾害的响应关系进行了综述。工业化革命以来,特别是近几十年来全球气候发生着重要的变化,全球几乎所有地区都经历着升温过程。全球气候变化对极端天气事件(极端降雨、气温升高、强风和洪水灾害)的影响尤为强烈,并且增加了地质灾害的发生风险。其中,水循环和气温的变化是影响地质灾害发生的直接因素。气温上升会导致大气层含水量升高、冰川冻土退化、海平面上升、蒸发作用增强;水循环变化会导致降雨频率、降水周期、降水强度的改变。日益增加的极端天气与同岩土体相互作用,导致了不同类型地质灾害的发生,严重威胁着人类的生活起居。  相似文献   

How subsidies affect the economic viability of small-scale fisheries     

《Marine Policy》2017

This article presents the first bottom-up analysis of the proportion of global marine fisheries subsidies to small-scale fisheries (SSF). Using existing data, the reported national subsidy amounts are split into the fraction that goes to small- and large-scale fishing sectors. Results reveal a major imbalance in subsidy distribution, with SSF receiving only about 16% of the total global fisheries subsidy amount of $35 billion in 2009. To bring this into perspective, a person engaged in large-scale fishing received around 4 times the amount of subsidies received by their SSF counterparts. Furthermore, almost 90% of capacity-enhancing subsidies, which are known to exacerbate overfishing go to large-scale fisheries, thus increasing the unfair competitive advantage that large-scale fisheries already have. The developmental, economic and social consequences of this inequity are huge and impair the economic viability of the already vulnerable small-scale fishing sector. Conclusions indicate that taxpayers' money should be used to support sustainable fishing practices and in turn ocean conservation, and not to foster the degradation of marine ecosystems, often a result of capacity-enhancing subsidies. Reducing capacity-enhancing subsidies will have minimal negative effects on SSF communities since they receive very little of these subsidies to begin with. Instead, it will help correct the existing inequality, enhance SSF economic viability, and promote global fisheries sustainability.  相似文献   

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?     

《Marine Policy》2017

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.  相似文献   

Problematising justice definitions in public food security debates: Towards global and participative food justices     

《Geoforum》2017

In the current environment of austerity, social justice concerns are increasingly permeating the food security agenda. However, there is a need to clarify what it means to create socially just food systems conceptually and practically. To address this gap, this paper proposes an analytical framework to embed a more complex conceptualisation of justice in food security debates that also serves as a bridging device across competing narratives. This framework is mobilised to analyse the framing process of the UK media, which plays a key role in developing narratives that provide audiences with schemas for interpreting events. Results show the emergence of eleven frames which highlight different solutions to deliver food security. The application of the justice analytical framework evidences the contingent relationship between food security and justice claims and discusses how these food security frames address differently what counts as a matter of justice (including economic, socio-cultural and political dimensions) and who counts as a subject of justice, tackling issues around delimitation of scales and sites of justice. The analysis reveals polarised positions between whether the sites subject to justice should be individuals or structures and uncovers how political and global elements of justice are largely by-passed in food security debates. These conceptualisations of justice and associated policy recommendations neglect the potential for people to participate fully in the conditions and decisions that give rise to particular distributions of goods and bads in the first place; limiting the construction of shared responsibilities to deliver global and participative food justices.  相似文献   

鲁西南聊考断裂带地震危险性评价与活动性分布     

刘方斌  曲均浩  田兆阳  刘承雨 《大地测量与地球动力学》2017,37(8):802-807

利用1970年以来沿聊考断裂带及周边50 km范围内的地震数据,结合历史强震与现今地震活动背景,分别运用最大似然法和最小二乘法对研究区进行b值计算,圈出高应力累积区,并借助时间相依的地震潜势概率评估方法以及地震活动性分布,得出以下结论：1）南段的范县、清丰、濮阳以及鄄城地区的b值维持在0.6～07之间,属于高应力积累区;2）未来50 a内南段危险性较高,100 a内整条断裂发生M5.0～6.0地震的可能性较大;3）地震活动主要集中在115.2°～115.6°E、34.9°～36°N区域内,且自2000年后地震活动性变强。  相似文献   

Spatial Sciences on Ice: 50 years of Australian activities on the Amery Ice Shelf,East Antarctica     

Volker Janssen  Rachael Hurd 《The Australian geographer》2008,39(4):389-408

The Antarctic climate system involves many complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice and is sensitive to variations in these components. Ice shelves represent the ice–ocean–atmosphere interface of the Antarctic continent and are therefore very important indicators of climate change in the region. The Amery Ice Shelf is the largest ice shelf in East Antarctica and has been the focus of many scientific research projects over the past 50 years. This paper presents a history of the use of spatial science techniques from basic survey equipment to satellite systems in Australian research projects based on the Amery Ice Shelf (and surrounding glaciers) since 1955. The application of these spatial data to projects based primarily in the fields of geodesy, glaciology, climatology, and oceanography has allowed the measurement and monitoring of the physical, dynamic and environmental characteristics of this large and remote region. This new information provides scientists with a better understanding of the ice shelf/ocean/atmosphere system allowing future monitoring to observe the effects of global climate change.  相似文献   

旅游地居民对主题景区旅游影响的感知与态度——以常州环球恐龙城为例     

衣传华  黄常州 《地理研究》2013,32(6):1165-1176

以常州环球恐龙城为例,利用因子分析、回归分析和聚类分析等方法,研究了旅游地居民对主题景区旅游影响的感知与态度。结果表明:①常州城市居民对环球恐龙城旅游影响的感知特征可归纳为“社会失序”、“文化素质提升”、“地方认同和生活环境改善”、“吸引力增强”、“综合效益提升”、“生活环境恶化”和“生活成本提高”等7个维度,居民对积极影响的感知强度整体上高于消极影响。②常州城市居民对环球恐龙城发展的态度与旅游影响感知密切联系,各感知因子对居民态度的不同维度有显著影响。③根据对环球恐龙城发展的态度,可将常州城市居民划分为“乐观支持者”、“理性支持者”、“谨慎支持者”、“冷漠态度者”等4种类型,总体来说,常州城市居民对环球恐龙城旅游发展的态度较为积极与理性。  相似文献   

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曹新运  王坚  刘超 《大地测量与地球动力学》2013,33(1):81-85

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高淑照  陈强 《大地测量与地球动力学》2013,33(4):155-159

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空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

徐伟进  高孟潭 《地震学报》2012,34(2):244-256

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．   相似文献